How a Trump Win Might Add Luster For Gold

Guest post by Charles Thorngren

Investors will likely pile on the bullion and boost the price of gold if Republican Donald Trump looks like he might win the White House, as a hedge against global financial uncertainty.

Spot gold slipped 0.1 percent to $1,336 an ounce Monday morning in London, with gold futures falling 0.2 percent to $1,339.9 an ounce, ahead of the evening U.S. presidential debate.

The question: who would appear likely to win the race to head the world’s biggest economy?

“If Trump is perceived to have an improved probability of winning the Presidential race, that is likely to be supportive of the gold prices, so we could see (gold) prices rallying in the short term amidst higher volatility,” NAB analyst Vyanne Lai told Reuters.

“Generally Trump’s presidential candidacy is associated with more extreme policy measures and more volatility in the geopolitical landscapes.”

With just six weeks until the November 8 election, the market has zeroed in on the first of three televised U.S. presidential debates.

Monday’s  90-minute debate at Hofstra University in New York could draw 100 million viewers across the nation, a record, analysts say.

Market participants are mostly expecting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to win the presidency and have not factored in the implications of a victory for Donald Trump, according to Investing.com. The idea of Trump in the White House is a worrying one for some investors who balk at his populist, unpredictable style.

Recent polls show a tightening race.  A Reuters/Ipsos poll gives Clinton a 4-point lead, 41 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, among likely voters.

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